"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.' - Mark Twain
Progress Matters
I began my Masters in Educational Management at Greenwich University in 2009. I wrote extensively about Pupil Tracking Data (which was a very hot new topic at the time in schools!) Somewhat ironically now OFSTED will NOT look at internal Pupil Tracking Data in schools when they are inspecting and making a value judgement on the quality of education.
The Benjamin Disraeli quote (used by Mark Twain): ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics', illustrates statistics can be used to bolster a weak argument. However, Tracking Data has been integral to how I have raised the pupil attainment at all my previous schools. What I have learned is when it's used to constitute a difference between pupil’s outcomes it has a positive effect.
Unfortunately, some schools have used internal data to inflate how well they are doing to suggest they are ‘on track’ to greater results in the coming year... Mark Twain's quote: ‘damned lies and statistics’ couldn't be more apt here, yet OFSTED will now not even look properly at internal data.
I agree the tracking of pupils alone will not improve pupils’ outcomes or ‘statistics’, however effective tracking of pupils’ progress is essential in order to promote high standards within schools and therefore just because OFSTED no longer wants to see it should not mean we stop doing it.
At its most fundamental level monitoring progress throughout a student’s academic life ensures that developmental difficulties can be picked up quickly. An ideal situation would be data gathered, analysed and then informed decisions can be made when setting targets. This is effective formative assessment for learning; most tracking data is used as summative assessment and rarely feeds into teaching programmes. I feel analysis should not just be used to show underperformance, it should be used to demonstrate marked improvement. Tracking pupils’ progress over time means practitioners, parents and inspectors can have a true picture of what is happening in relation to pupils’ learning.
The lies behind TAGs data
With the recent pandemic, we have had to rely on ratified Teacher Assessed Grades (TAGs) and therefore we have not had externally set exam results. TAGs replacing exams across the UK were often in the news - there was a large amount of discussion around algorithms, but disappointingly little consideration was given to the pupils who were directly affected.
3,606 16-year-olds in England taking at least seven GCSEs achieved a grade 9 in all their 9-to-1 graded subjects. During this period the gender gap reached its highest level in 10 years: girls achieved 46.4% of all the A* and As versus 41.7% for boys. In subjects, such as Maths, girls overtook boys for the first time in the proportion of A*s (as the gap overall widened across almost every subject).
According to Ofqual, in 2021 overall GCSE results were higher at grade 7 and above. 28.5% in comparison with the 25.9% in 2020, and 20.7% in 2019. England witnessed the proportion of grades at a level 7 and above (A or A* equivalent) increase by 5.2 percentage points in 2020 and a 2.6 percentage point rise the following year - totalling 7.8 percentage points in total, or a 37.68% improvement in results at the top end in just 2 years. This is particularly impressive (and suspect) considering most students had a hugely hindered learning experience with bubble systems and country-wide lock downs, to name just a few of the educational obstacles that we all faced.
The table below sums up the data from the past 3-years' of UK exam results:
The tables below show the results from different educational organisations:
Grade 4 and above in 2021 were 76.9% in compared with 75.9% in 2020, and 67.1% in 2019, meaning an increase of 14% over 2 years. In the state sector Academies (including 2,000 Secondary schools in England), awarded grades 7 and above to 28% of entries, rising by more than two percentage points over the expectation that year.
This increase in pupil attainment benefited those pupils at independent schools the most, where the proportion of top grades increased by nine percentage points to 70%, compared with six percentage points elsewhere.
In 2019 The Joint Council for Qualifications (JTQ) figures demonstrated a 20 percent point gap between the top grades at independent and state schools, which is the last year pupils were able to sit formal exams. This year the gap widened to 31 percentage points between independent schools and comprehensives in England, while the gap between independents and state sixth form colleges was even wider, at 35 percentage points.
David Robinson, of the Education Policy Institute commented:“Private school pupils might have also benefited from parental pressure on teachers, while the higher level of prior attainment in independent school pupils was a contributing factor.”
The Truth Behind Recent A Level Results
Due to the pandemic, 2019 was the last year A Level pupils took public exams before the national lockdown: 57,410 A* grades - equal to 7.7 per cent of all grades - were awarded.
Last summer (2021), that figure jumped to 144,440 A* grades or 19.1 per cent of all grades. In 2019, 25 per cent of all grades were A* or A, compared to 45 per cent in 2021.
According to the Evening Standard: 70.1% of all A-level entries from private schools were awarded an A grade or higher this year, which has prompted concerns that Covid-19 has widened the gap between private and state schools.
No doubt there is a real potential danger when doing this - sending students off to undertake courses that they are not fully-equipped for will ultimate have a knock-on effect in the near and distant future. As well as not being academically able, these students will struggle at University with the rigour that the Degree courses demand because they have missed out on a large proportion of training that the A Level exams provide - so, by being optimistic with TAGs, are we just setting them up to fail?
It also devalues what it takes to achieve at the highest level in Secondary Education; it should require outstanding commitment and talent to achieve this level of attainment. Not the wrath of Unions, parents & the media forcing the exam boards to turn a blind eye to this overinflation for fear of backlash.
Progress 8
When Progress 8 was introduced in 2016 as the headline indicator of school performance, I hoped and wished that we had reached a precipice and dawn of a new era in education. Its aim was to capture the progress that pupils in a school make from the end of primary school to the end of key stage 4. Being a type of value-added measure, it means that pupils’ results are compared to the progress of other pupils nationally with similar prior attainment.
For me progress is far more important than a number or a letter because otherwise you will always be disappointed - the truth is that students are humans, not statistics. Sadly, this dawn of a new era never materialised and (as the exam results during lockdown have proven!) we have gone even further away from the true value of education and further down the ‘sausage factory’ route Ken Robinson spoke about. (See blog 1)
The reward of education should be the acquiring of new knowledge and skills - instrumental goals that are proximal. To quote Alan Watts (the self-styled English writer and interpreter of Eastern Philosophy): ‘If we are only interested in getting to the end - success or whatever it is, or maybe heaven after you're dead - then we missed the point the whole way along. It was a musical thing and you were supposed to sing, or to dance, while the music was being played'.
Final Thoughts
As humans our brains are designed to constantly seek new challenges and it is from the pursuit of goals that most of the value we feel is derived from. Science has proven this with how dopamine affects the brain and makes us want to overcome challenges in order to receive a reward. I fully understand this myself as an artist and a professional educator. Most of the positive emotion we feel in relation to a goal is though the progress we make - that is why artists refer to themselves as ‘practising artists’. However, have the past 2-years of students truly had this experience?
You are never complete, or to paraphrase Alan Watts again: 'to get to the end means you are dead'. In a sense we all want a goal that recedes into the background as we move towards it; you want a horizon of ever-expanding possibilities. This is why the highest-level goals, such as exam results, are transcendent and sublime, that in our pursuit of them we take on even greater challenges and responsibilities. This is real learning and cannot be quantified by a number or a letter - especially an inflated one.
This August 2022, when the GCSE and A Level exam results are published, I very much doubt we will see another jump in results like we have witnessed in 2021 and 2022. I believe it will be a much more sobering outcome than the last 2 years.
It leaves us all to question the following:
Will Independent Schools witness a decline in their exam results?
How much impact has the pandemic had on pupil’s ability to perform under exam conditions?
Will the attainment gap between boys and girls become even wider?
I wish everyone good luck come results day.
To learn more about James Kenny's PHD journey check out his regular guest blog HERE
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